AMC Entertainment Holdings Stock Forecast: AMC fails to get stuck in the Mud as record highs smashed

  • AMC shares smash record high in Wednesday’s premarket, above $40.
  • Traders are out to squeeze the shorts as Mudrick bails out.
  • AMC surpassing GameStop frenzy from January in a new epic.

AMC just keeps on giving as the stock soars to further highs in Wednesday’s premarket. Traders were buoyed on Tuesday by the announcement that Mudrick Capital had bought shares in AMC enabling the cinema operator to raise cash and go on the offensive. However, it later turned out to be a twist as Mudrick said they had sold all their position as they thought AMC to be overvalued, according to Bloomberg. This appears to have emboldened traders on the various social media sites who have pushed the stock to new highs during Wednesday’s premarket. Mudrick reaped a nice profit for a quick trade and there is nothing wrong with that. The shares were not subject to a lockup so they were free to do with them as they pleased. Clearly, they did not fully count on the power of retail and left plenty behind them as AMC share breach $40 in Wednesday’s premarket. AMC is doing only what it should be doing and raising money in an easy environment. The retail frenzy has made raising cash much easier for a number of companies as investors appear to be unfazed by the dilutive effects of share sales. While share sales are generally dilutive (assuming new shares are issued) the cash raised helps to underpin the balance sheet, restructure debt and help companies survive. This is exactly what AMC has done as it cleverly avoided bankruptcy which was a distinct possibility at the start of the pandemic. AMC has raised over $1 billion through share sales since the retail frenzy began. 

AMC stock forecast

New shorts continue to enter the market as the price appreciates, creating a battle between the short sellers and the retail traders. It is a matter of firepower at this stage and for the most part, the short-sellers have been woefully underestimating the firepower of the retail trading group. While the fundamentals of AMC may seem way too stretched this has long since been a momentum play and the old adage the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent is very applicable here. At some stage, the music will stop and you do not want to be left without a seat, or at the very least a stop! A few scenarios can emerge. At some stage, retail will have filled themselves up and the price rise will stall. At this stage new shorts may enter and push the price down or the shorts may have given up leading to a sudden drop in volume and volatility. GameStop eventually ran out of firepower up at the higher levels near $500 but it did not retreat to pre-frenzy levels as the shorts have given up on this one and so the stock has been relatively stable around $200. AMC shares are currently trading above $40 while the average Wall Street analyst price target for AMC is $3.70 according to Refinitiv. The latest SEC filing shows Chief Marketing Officer Stephen Colanero selling $15,000 shares for $411k approximately. It is unclear how much of Mr. Colanero’s holding this represents so it may not be material. 

There is not much to say technically about AMC now that it has blown through all previous highs. The momentum oscillators are strongly overbought, the Relative Strength Index, the Commodity Channel Index, and the Williams %R. but these can stay overbought for some time or price consolidation can return them to neutral levels so they do not necessarily have to result in a price reduction. 

At the time of writing, the author has no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author is long puts in AMC. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

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