- The AUD/USD fails to reclaim the 0.7500 mark for the seventh straight trading day.
- Mixed US macroeconomic data was no excuse for the greenback to rally vs. most G8 currencies.
- AUD/USD Price Forecast: The pair topped around the 0.7500 mark, exposing the AUD/USD to downward pressure.
The AUD/USD barely advances during the North American session as the market mood turns sour. US equities are recording losses, while US Treasury yields in the short-end of the curve are rising more than long-dated maturities, signaling that the US economy might slow down on aggressive Fed hiking. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7490.
Mixed US economic data and a risk-off mood boost the USD
Factors like the Russo-Ukraine conflict, and elevated global prices, shifted investors’ mood. Earlier in the day, the US Department of Labour unveiled March’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which came at 431K jobs added, lower than the 490K foreseen by economists. Although that was slightly low than estimated, forecasts were from 0 to 700K, so the market perceived it as a solid report. Further, the Unemployment rate lowered from 3.8% YoY in February to 3.6% in March and beat the 3.7% expected.
Later the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator for the industry, fell to 57.1 in March from 58.6 in February, well below the 59 estimations by analysts.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value against its peers, is rising 0.32%, sitting at 98.666, underpinned by high US Treasury yields. The US 10-year benchmark note rises three basis points, at 2.360%, though lower than 2s, which are at 2.428%, inverting the curve for the second time in the week.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the last seven days, AUD/USD price action has been meandering around the 0.7500 mark but so far has failed to sustain above it. It is worth noting that the candlesticks, most of them printed a larger wick on top of the real bodies, suggesting that solid resistance might cap latter moves. Also, failure to reclaim October 28, 2021, daily high at 0.7555, left the pair vulnerable to downward pressure.
Therefore, the AUD/USD first support level would be September 3, 2021, daily high at 0.7478. A sustained break would expose March 7 daily high at 0.7441, followed by 0.7400, and November 15, 2021, daily high at 0.7370.