Canada: Expecting relatively modest labour market gains in November – TD Securities

On Friday, the NFP report and in Canada job figures will be released. Analysts at TD Securities expect the Canadian unemployment rate at 6.6% in November (in line with market consensus) and a positive net change in employment of 37K.

Key Quotes: 

“We look for relatively modest labour market gains in November with another 30k jobs added, pulling the UE rate 0.1pp lower to 6.6%. Job growth should be driven by full-time employment, but we will not see the impact of BC floods due to an early reference week. We also look for a sharp uptick in wages, reflecting a combination of base-effects and recent momentum.”

“Barring a very significant surprise, the focus should be on US payrolls where we expect a strong report. We think the CAD’s losing streak may be coming to an end. 1.28/29 in USDCAD looks toppish to us but we think better prospects may be had against the funders. We are particularly focused on CADJPY.”

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