EUR/USD Price Analysis: Trapped between the 4-hour 50 and 100-SMA, around 1.1300

  • The shared currency advances against the greenback, up some 0.10%.
  • The US Dollar Index, which measures the buck’s performance against six rivals, is flat at 96.16.
  • EUR/USD: Mild bearish, but it needs a break below the 50-SMA to resume the downward move.

After seesawing before the Wall Street open on US macroeconomic data, the EUR/USD advances modestly, up some 0.10%, trading at 1.1309 during the New York session at the time of writing. The market sentiment is downbeat, as portrayed by US equity indices falling, between 0.77% and 2.61%. Furthermore, in the bond market, US bond yields aim downward. Contrarily the greenback is flat during the day, with the US Dollar Index sitting at 96.16, unchanged.

The EUR/USD remained subdued during the overnight session, in a narrow range between 1.1280-1.1307 range, ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls release. However, once the NFP crossed the wires, the pair seesawed around 1.1332-1.265, settling at 1.1300.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD 4-hour chart shows that the pair has a downward bias. While the 50-simple moving average (SMA) is below the spot price, the 100 and the 200-SMA reside above the spot price, confirming the abovementioned. The pair has been range-bound between the 50 and the 100-SMA, each lying at 1.1280-1.1315, with no clear direction, and as the New York session winds down, it seems the EUR/USD would remain trapped at it.

In the outcome of a break above the 100-SMA, the first supply zone would be the November 30 high at 1.1382. The breach of the latter would open the way for further upside, with 1.1400 as the next resistance, followed by the confluence of the 200-SMA and the November 15 high at around the 1.1450-70 range.

On the other hand, a break under the 50-SMA would expose the 1.1200 figure, followed by the year-to-date low at the  November 24 low at 1.1186.

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