Forex Today: US dollar prints highest since early April before critical NFP

What you need to know on Wednesday, July 2:

The US dollar has started the month on a solid footing after closing its best month in 4 1/2 years. On Thursday, ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report, the dollar hit three-month highs but traded within narrow ranges as traders get set for more clues on whether the Federal Reserve will start to reduce monetary stimulus sooner rather than later. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major counterparts, rose to 92.601, the highest since early April. 

EUR/USD fell to 1.1837 as a fresh low but was consolidated in the main at a critical support structure that is proving to be a tough nut to crack on first attempts. The 4-hour price action is moving sideways within the monthly demand area which could easily see the price correct higher especially if the US NFP print does not Iive up to expectations. Recent domestic data is also in the bulls favour with Eurostat announcing that the Unemployment Rate declined to 7.9% in May, compared to analysts’ estimate of 8%. Additionally, Markit Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 63.4 in June and surpassed the market expectation of 63.1.

GBP/USD dropped on Thursday after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned against over-reaction to rising inflation in Britain. Cable slipped in morning trading to $1.3752  its lowest level since April. Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey said in his annual Mansion House speech that it was important to ensure that the recovery was not undermined by a premature tightening in monetary conditions, as a rise in inflation was likely to be temporary. Sterling is also facing uncertainty over the spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 in the UK. Earlier this month forced the government to delay full reopening.

AUD/USD rebounded earlier in the day but bears took over in the 0.7500 area and the bulls were shaken out all the way to the lowest level of 2021 at 0.74650.

The price of gold was higher despite yet another surge in the US dollar. XAU/USD was sitting at $1,776.30 in the close and between the lows of $1,765.78 and the highs of $1,783.01. 

WTI was at $74.94 and higher by 1.97% into the closing bell on Wall Street. The price was rallying from a low of $73.41 to a fresh $76.20 cycle high early in the day. 

All three major US stock indexes ended the session in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 131.02 points, or 0.38%, to 34,633.53, the S&P 500 put on 22.44 points, or 0.52%, to 4,319.94 and the Nasdaq Composite added 18.42 points, or 0.13%, to 14,522.38. 

For the day ahead, it is all about the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls. 

US June Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Analyzing major pairs’ reaction to NFP surprises

  • Nonfarm Payrolls in US is expected to rise by 690,000 in June. 
  • There is a strong correlation between surprising NFP prints and major pairs’ immediate movements.
  • Investors are likely to react to a disappointing NFP more strongly than a positive reading.    

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