Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates gains near its YTD high

  • Gold price consolidates gains in the $1,960 price zone as panic paused. 
  • The Kremlin is in no mood to make a truce with Ukraine.
  • The risk-off impulse has underpinned precious metal over the greenback.

Gold Prices stabilized near their recent highs, as panic paused, although it would likely resume when US traders sit on their desks. Meanwhile, the USD/RUB pulled lower from record highs, as it seems the Central Bank of Russia has intervened in the FX market. Earlier today, the CBR released a statement noting that: “To stabilise the situation in the financial market, the Bank of Russia has decided to start interventions in the foreign exchange market, extend the Lombard List, and provide the banking sector with extra liquidity today,” Additionally, Russian policymakers said that  “The Bank of Russia will use all necessary instruments to maintain the financial stability and business continuity of financial institutions. The Bank of Russia and financial institutions have specific action plans for any developments.”

Gold prices are on fire as the Russian war on Ukraine goes into a full blaze in the early hours of the morning. XAU/USD has rallied to a high of $1,974.40 so far as Russian troops are boots on the ground in Ukraine. The Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered military operations in Ukraine On Wednesday, demanding Kyiv forces to surrender. Military command centres Ukraine in Kyiv and Kharkiv have reportedly been attacked by missile strikes. 

Markets, as a consequence, are in freefall and the precious metals are attracting the safe-haven flows from Asian markets and soon to the European flows as Frankfurt comes online to pick up the pieces. Given how sanguine investors had appeared to be in continuing to price more benign outcomes in yesterday’s markets, there could be an almighty scramble to cover in the session ahead and gold stands to befit from the hedging activity. 

European bourses rose in early trading on Wednesday, supported by some strong earnings reports, while investors took stock of Western sanctions against Moscow over its standoff with Ukraine. By the end of the session in trade on Wednesday, the JPY was the laggard of FX, European equities were higher; andS&P 500 futures were preparing for a bullish day, up 0.7%. Gold was down 0.2% to $1,894.30. 

Gold price has retreated from Thursday’s high at $1913.73. The precious metal is waiting for more clarity over the rumours that Russia could invade Ukraine at 4 am local time. As the clouds over the rumour get cleared, the investors may find a legitimate reason to initiate positions further in the precious metal.

The US Secretary of State Antony John Blinken said that he believes that Russia will invade Ukraine before the night is over, as reported by NBC News. The headlines had spurted the volatility in the market and the risk-aversion theme got more traction. The safe-haven assets got underpinned against the risk-perceived assets.

Earlier, the Russian administration unanswered the phone call requests from Ukraine, which strengthened the odds of an imminent war between Russia and Ukraine. It indicated that Russia is in no mood to make a truce with Ukraine and wanted war as a last resort. Then, Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmtryo Kuleba had requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations (UN) Security Council to reach a positive outcome against the ongoing tensions with Moscow. However, the Kremlin is supposed to strike Ukraine before the scheduling of the UN Security Council emergency meeting.

Meanwhile, the US dollar Index (DXY) has retreated from Thursday’s high at 96.36 after a stellar upside move as investors await fresh impetus on the Russia-Ukraine tussle.  

Gold Technical Analysis

On an hourly scale, XAU/USD is trading in a range of $1,886.67- $1,913.73 since Friday. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted its trading range from 40.00-60.00 to 60.00-80.00, which indicates that an ascending trend has been established after a consolidation. The 50-period and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are scaling higher, which adds to the upside filters.

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