NZD/USD starts out the Asian session on the backfoot

  • NZD/USD pressured as the US dollar firms up ahead of RBNZ this week.
  • Risk-off has helped to lift the US dollar and hamstring the commodity complex. 

NZD/USD is ending the North American session down over 0.2% after the US dollar perked up on Monday following a session of modest risk-aversion and weak Chinese data to start the week.

”It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact catalyst, but the going seemed to get tougher for the Kiwi following weaker Chinese data yesterday afternoon,” analysts at ANZ Bank said. 

The analysts explained that the next few days, however, are all likely to be about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

”We’ve discussed this at length – a hike is coming – it’s just a question of how big, and how many are projected to follow it. That will in turn put carry back on the table for the Kiwi, and it’s this that could suddenly be the focus, not just for spot markets, but for bond investors too. Buckle in for the ride.”

Meanwhile, the US dollar has established a base following a heavy sell-off on the back of last week’s grim Consumer Confidence data. 

The survey showed US consumer sentiment dropped sharply in early August to its lowest level in a decade. 

The fall was one of the six largest drops in the past 50 years of the survey and it underlines a broader concern at economic growth as virus cases rise around the world.

Consequently, the DXY index dropped to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, as illustrated on the above daily chart

However, the US dollar is former in the build-up to the highly anticipated Jackson Hole between 26-28 August and PCE data on 27 Aug.

Moreover, the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes will be scanned this Wednesday for signs as to when the Fed might contemplate tapering its bond purchases.

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