Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD portrays Ukraine-linked cautious optimism around $26.50

  • Silver consolidates the biggest daily gains in a week around nine-month high.
  • Market sentiment improves as Ukraine steps back from NATO goal, tensions between US and Venezuela also ease.
  • Yields weigh on DXY, stock futures print mild gains.
  • Risk catalysts are the key for near-term directions, inflation numbers may also entertain traders.

Silver (XAG/USD) dribbles around $26.40, down 0.25% intraday during Wednesday’s Asian session. The bright metal rose to the highest since June 2021 the previous day before reversing from $26.95.

The metal’s latest weakness, or at least the absence of further upside, could be linked to the fading fears from Ukraine. “In a nod to Russia, Ukraine is reportedly no longer insisting on NATO membership,” reported AFP on Tuesday. The news also joins the confirmation of the first humanitarian corridor in Ukraine to tame the market’s pessimism. Additionally favoring the risk appetite, as well as negatively affecting silver’s safe-haven appeal is Venezuela’s freeing of the American prisoner and the US hint of easing sanctions afterward.

However, Russia may not cheer Kyiv’s intention to dump NATO membership goal as Moscow may fear the enemy to join the European Union (EU), which in turn demolishes President Vladimir Putin’s unsaid target of putting Kremlin-controlled leader in Ukraine.

Hence, traders remain cautious despite the recently easing fears from Ukraine. While portraying the mood, the US 10-year Treasury yields fail to extend the previous day’s positive performance around 1.84%, down 1.3 basis points (bps) whereas the S&P 500 Futures rise 0.30% on a day by the press time.

Looking forward, silver traders will keep their eyes on the risk catalysts and may witness further losses should the risk-on mood continues to prevail.

Technical analysis

Despite the latest pullback, an upward sloping trend line from September 2021, around $26.20, followed by the $26.00 threshold, restricts short-term XAG/USD declines.

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