Tesla FSD Price Goes Up To $12,000 — As Expected

Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced on Twitter yesterday that Tesla would be soon raising the price of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package from $10,000 to $12,000. Initially, the new price will only affect US residents. In his thread, Elon also explained that Tesla’s FSD prices will rise as Tesla gets closer to FSD production release. Elon also said that the monthly subscription price will rise when FSD goes to wide release.

I would gently remind some of those upset over the new price that this wasn’t exactly a surprise.

The price of Tesla’s FSD option was never intended to stay the same forever. Elon said this in April 2019. He said that the price would increase substantially over time. Perhaps many have forgotten, or maybe haven’t even seen that tweet at all.

I have a couple of thoughts and suggestions for Tesla. I’ve seen many of my friends in the Tesla community — people who are diehard Tesla supporters and shareholders who genuinely want the best for Tesla — voice their opinions and thoughts. They don’t like the price change or the fact that if a Tesla owner who has purchased FSD either sells their car to buy a new one or something happens (such as an accident where they have to replace their car), they lose FSD.

Many feel that it’s not fair that they would have to rebuy it when upgrading to a new car or having to replace their old one for a reason that is beyond their control, such as a collision. A suggestion I have for Tesla is to not give the customer the software on their new car for free, but perhaps at the price that they paid for it originally.

If someone bought a Tesla Model 3 in 2018 with FSD and that car was totaled in an accident — especially if the accident wasn’t the fault of the Tesla owner — perhaps Tesla could give the owner the option of FSD at the same price that person purchased it at as an incentive for buying another Tesla instead of another brand. Tesla could still make its money, while also supporting its loyal customers.

Another great idea was pitched by “Whole Mars” — bringing back Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) for $6,000, or $99 a month, in the US. He pointed out that some people just want the auto lane change feature and aren’t really interested in testing Beta, but that EAP can be the gateway drug to FSD. I think this is an excellent idea.

What The Price Change Could Possibly Be Signaling

In a recent podcast with Lex Fridman, Elon was asked when he thought Tesla would solve Level 4 FSD.

“It’s looking quite likely it will be next year.”

That means 2022, since the podcast was recorded in December 2021. Lex also asked Elon what the solution looked like.

“Anyone who’s been following the Full-Self Driving beta closely will see that the rate of disengagements has been dropping rapidly.

“There’s engagement B where the driver intervenes to prevent the car from doing something dangerous, potentially. The interventions per million miles have been dropping dramatically.”

Elon added that the trend makes it look like the probability of an accident on FSD will be less than that of an average human in 2022, and from there grow increasingly less than that of the average human.

“It certainly appears like we will get there [in 2022].”

Elon also acknowledged the challenges of proving the technology to regulators. He pointed out that Tesla wants a standard that isn’t just equivalent to a human but much better than the average human.

“I think it’s got to be at least two or three times better, higher safety than a human. Two or three times lower probability of injury than a human before we would actually say, ‘okay, it’s okay to go.’ It’s not going to be equivalent, it’s going to be much better.”

Based on the podcast and other tweets by Elon over the past few years, I think that the price change could possibly be a signal that Tesla has had some type of breakthrough toward Level 4.

He tweeted yesterday that the FSD price will rise as Tesla gets close to FSD production code release (which we’ve seen him say before in other words).

In March 2020, Elon tweeted that the price of FSD will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. The value of FSD will probably be around or over $100,000, he stated.

Keep in mind that despite Elon’s speed at standing up for himself on Twitter, he and Tesla will actually work with the government regulators, as they always have. What this means is that before everyone and their grandmother who owns a Tesla has FSD driving for them, Tesla will work closely to get FSD approved. I think that many, especially those who don’t follow EVs or Tesla that closely, will see a lot of drama in the news when that time comes.

 

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