USD/INR Price Analysis: Bears are firmer below 200-EMA, 75.00 eyed, death cross likely

  • Bears await a death cross from the 50- and 200-period EMAs.
  • The RSI (14) has tumbled into a 20.00-40.00 range, which indicates more pain ahead.
  • Falling channel formation is advocating more weakness in the asset towards the lower boundary.

The USD/INR pair is likely to remain subdued as investors await the unfolding of the monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is due on Friday. The asset has remained in the negative territory prolonged after recording a multi-year high of 77.16 on March 8. The asset has recovered its intraday losses but is likely to find barricades near March 29 low at 75.54.

On a four-hour scale, USD/INR is auctioning in a falling channel formation whose upper end is placed from March 8 high at 77.16 and the lower boundary is marked from March 10 low at 76.08. A tap near the lower end of the falling channel might be considered a pullback by the market participants.

A death cross is on the cards as the 50- and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are on the verge of a bearish crossover around 75.85.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has established a 20.00-40.00 range, which adds to the downside filters.

A slippage below Tuesday’s low at 75.39 will bring offers for the asset, which will drag the major towards March lows at 75.22, followed by round level support at 75.00.

On the contrary, greenback bulls may regain strength if the asset oversteps Thursday’s low at 75.66. A breach of Thursday’s low will expose the major for further upside towards the 50-EMA and round level resistance at 75.87 and 76.00 respectively.

USD/INR four-hour chart

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