USD/JPY surged to a fresh multi-decade high on Tuesday as rising US Treasury bond yield’s fueled the pair’s rally. The peak in USD/JPY is unlikely to come until markets can see the end of this Fed hiking cycle and long-dated yields peak, according to Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale.
Another high in USD/JPY
“I very much doubt we’ve seen the top of USD/JPY and don’t really expect to see that happen until we see the peak in Treasury yields, which in turn, seems unlikely to come before the end of the summer.”
“Unless we get US yields well above the most recent peak, we’re still unlikely to see USD/JPY above 140 for long, if at all. But that said, buying the yen today is still rather like standing in front of a charging polar bear on the grounds that global warming will make him extinct soon. Timing matters!”