- WTI looks to oscillate in a range of 97.72-115.87 as higher uncertainty is followed by volatility contraction.
- The RSI (14) has shifted in a 40.00-60.00 range, which signals consolidation ahead.
- The 20 and 50-period EMAs are scaling higher, which advocates that the upside is still intact.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, has been bounced sharply after recording weekly lows at 104.39 on Tuesday. The oil prices have remained highly uncertain in March, which is visible from the wild positive swing plotted from March 1 low at 94.48 to March 8 high at 126.51 and negative swing from March 8 high to March 15 low at 92.37.
Usually, larger-than-average moves in an asset are followed by tightening volatility. On the daily scale, the black gold is likely to remain balanced in a range of 97.72-115.87 and will display a symmetrical triangle formation. The trendline placed from the 20 December 2021 low at 66.10 adjoining the March 15 low at 92.37 will act as major support going forward.
The 20 and 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMAs) at 104.70 and 97.78 respectively are scaling higher, which adds to the upside filters.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into a 40.00-60.00 range from a bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which signals consolidation ahead.
Should the asset violates March 24 high at 115.87, the oil prices will start marching towards the round level resistance at 120.00, followed by March 8 high at 126.51.
On the flip side, bears can take control if the black gold drops below the 50-period EMA at 97.78, which will drag the asset towards March 15 low and February 18 low at 92.37 and 87.29 respectively.